How to Expect the Unexpected with Professor Kit Yates
Professor Kit Yates will explore themes from his book How to Expect the Unexpected, examining the challenges of prediction in an uncertain world. He will discuss how human intuition struggles with forecasting due to cognitive biases, particularly our tendency to assume linearity in situations where exponential growth or feedback loops are at play. This misperception can lead to critical errors, such as underestimating the rapid spread of disease or failing to appreciate the urgency of the climate crisis.
Kit will emphasise the necessity of embracing u.ncertainty rather than resisting it. He will explore how probabilistic thinking, allows us to refine our expectations as new evidence emerges. Acknowledging randomness and non-linearity, can help individuals make better decisions. By recognising the limits of predictability and cultivating a mindset that balances scepticism with flexibility, the talk will provide audiences with practical tools to navigate an unpredictable world more effectively.
Professor Kit Yates is an author, broadcaster, and academic specialising in the role of mathematics in everyday life. He completed his PhD at the University of Oxford and is now Professor of Mathematical Biology and Public Engagement at the University of Bath, where he also directs the Centre for Mathematical Biology. His interdisciplinary research applies mathematical modelling to fields including biology, epidemiology, and public health, with his work cited in policy documents worldwide.
He is the author of The Maths of Life and Death—a Sunday Times Science Book of the Year—and How to Expect the Unexpected, with his books published in over 25 languages. His writing regularly appears in The Guardian, The Independent, and other major outlets, where he explores the impact of mathematics on society. His articles on The Conversation have attracted over 6.8 million reads, and his online videos explaining mathematical and scientific concepts have reached audiences in the millions.
A trusted expert on science communication, Kit frequently contributes to BBC Radio 4’s More or Less and Inside Science, as well as TV news and documentaries. His engaging and accessible explanations have made him a sought-after speaker, appearing at major science festivals and public events. As a core member of Independent SAGE, he played a key role in providing clear, data-driven insights during the pandemic, influencing policymakers and engaging the public in discussions on mathematical modelling and public health.
